The G Manifesto

Commodity Trading: Perception vs. Reality

For May11th– May 15th 2009
By: Matthew Bradbard

Buy The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down by Peter Schiff

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The latest advance in stocks and commodities with the fall in treasuries and the US dollar, could in fact be a precursor of what is to come but the pace of the advances and declines is flawed. These spectacular moves in such a short time are irrational and almost always not true. Stocks are moving higher as investors believe we will start to see a recovery in coming quarters and on hope that the worst is behind us. I’m not convinced on either front just yet. Commodities are rallying for the same reasoning and the fact that inflation may be around the corner. It is undeniable that this is a valid concern but perhaps premature. The move in treasuries is justifiable and for the US government to think they can get global investors to bail them out of this mess by issuing long term obligations and paying 3% is ludicrous. The US dollar is dead and will be considerably lower years from now. Day to day the volatility is unpredictable, however even Warren Buffet recently said 5-10 years from now the US dollar could be considerably lower. Markets tend to move irrationally and to extremes when fear and greed is present and this is never been more apparent across all asset classes. The investor that diversifies their portfolio and can differentiate between perception and reality will come ahead in the long run.

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Energies

June crude oil closed up $6.01 last week, the highest close in 4 months. What was resistance will now become support between 55.75 and 56.25 with resistance at 60.00. Oil has traded higher 11 of the last 14 days on good volume so it is safe to say this rally is real and most likely sustainable, albeit with periodic setbacks. June heating oil was higher by 14.33 cents. Resistance comes in at 1.5375, support is seen between 1.47 and 1.48. It is not unreasonable to expect a 50% retracement of the recent move taking prices to 1.3525. June RBOB blasted higher by 19.72 cents last week trading to its highest level since 11/4. Resistance comes in between 1.75 and 1.80 with support at 1.63 followed by 1.55. We have advised clients to exit their July and August 20 cent bull call spreads at a profit. We should get a setback being the last 2 weeks we saw a 25% advance.

Buy The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down by Peter Schiff

Click Here for Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street’s Champion Day Trader

June natural gas closed up 77 cents at its highest level in 5 weeks. Much of the move is attributed to an expected decline in US production and industrial usage coming back on line. Since bottoming on 4/30 prices have moved $1 higher or 33%. We advised clients to book partial profits on their longs and to tighten up stops. Perhaps one of my best trades ever (Sell August $3.25 puts & buy 6 September $8 calls) was bought for $150 and closed at $3,650. $3.25 should serve as the low; we see support at 3.90 with resistance at 4.50 in June.

Grains

As of last week the USDA said that 33% of the corn was planted, down from the five-year average of 50%. July corn was higher by 13 ¼ cents last week to its highest level since 1/26. Support comes in at 4.15 followed by 4.00 with resistance at 4.25 followed by 4.38. Based on the market, action traders are content being long rather than short into the USDA report as pre-report guesses have a lower ending stocks number due to strong demand and lower South American production. Longs have been in the driver seat but we expect a 30-40 cent correction starting this week and will have clients on the sidelines until this happens or we get a different read.

As of last week the USDA said that 6% of the soybean crop was planted, down from the five-year average of 11%. July soybeans were higher by 23 cents last week. Prices traded within a 40 cent range, we feel this sideways consolidation exhibited exhaustion. First support is seen at 10.90 but we anticipate a break to 10.60 and possibly 10.20. Resistance is seen at 11.20. We sold June $11 calls and have clients positioned in put spreads into the USDA report. We ought to see a correction lower being soybean acreage should come in greater than the previous report and even with a moderate drop in ending stocks the market has already priced in a significant increase in demand for US beans. On drier weather here and in South America perhaps the demand has been overestimated.

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_____________________________________________________________________________________Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading MB Wealth recommends that you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if commodity trading is appropriate for you. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. There are no guarantees of market outcome stated, everything stated above are our opinions. Calculations of profit and loss have not factored in commissions and fees.