The G Manifesto

Lessons from a Legend: Jim Rogers

December 09, 2009
By: Matthew Bradbard

A Gift to My Children: A Father’s Lessons for Life and Investing

Last night I took a trip down to Miami to visit with Jim Rogers at a book signing for his most recent book entitled: “A Gift to My Children: A Father’s Lessons for Life and Investing.” After speaking briefly about his 3 year tour around the globe he spoke a little about the aforementioned book and took questions from the audience.

These are the general themes I took away in no particular order:

Jim said numerous times he is a terrible market timer, he went as far to say he’s not the worst in the room but the worst in the world…very humble.

While Jim’s primary residence is in Singapore he also has a dwelling here in Florida, what I found interesting is that he rents and does not own his home here in Florida. The fact that he sold a lavish residence in New York before the real estate crash and rents here in Florida may be that his timing is better in real estate.

Though he waited later than most, he stated one of his proudest accomplishments was having children. For one of the most successful investors in our time that speaks volumes about the father he most likely is.

Not only did he move his family to Singapore but his two daughters will be fluent in Mandarin and Spanish.

He did not go into specifics about his bank accounts but his two daughters have Swiss bank accounts, not accounts denominated in US dollars. What does that say about his feeling on the US dollar?

He has no short exposure in US Treasuries, currently he thinks the multi-decade long bull market in this complex is over and he believed he would be taking a hefty short position at some time in the future.

Jim Rogers: Audit the Fed, Then Abolish It

One of the questions from the audience pertained to getting an MBA. Jim’s response in so many words was that it would be a complete waste of money and time. He suggested traveling around the world would be a more valuable experience. He went as far to say that sitting in a hot tub in Boston one could learn more than going to some of the prestigious universities there.

Jim had little good to say about the current choices Central banks are making and implied serious inflation is all but inevitable. He expects rates to be much higher but gave little time frame. He said jokingly we may run out of trees if the printing presses continue to run at their current pace.

The only real estate advice I recall him saying is buying a farm in the Mid-west to take advantage of the boom he expects in Commodity prices.

Bull cycles in commodities in the past have lasted between 18 and 20 years. In his view we have another decade or so in the current cycle.

As a commodity trader, what I found most interesting was that in his jacket pocket he had a gold and silver coin and a sugar packet. This was probably to prove a point but it really hit home with me and other audience members.

Globe “Overdue For a Currency Crisis”; Why Jim Rogers Is Buying Dollars

Perhaps one of the most staggering things to me was how little of the general population was in that room, the US and around the globe that are investing in commodities. It will change and I believe those that exercise discipline in the next 5-10 years stand to deeply benefit.
Find attached some historical pricing on several commodities to put things in perspective on how low and how high prices have been in the past and where we sit today. These figures are not adjusted for inflation. Being Rogers is a terrible market timer he suggested looking at buying when prices are depressed and selling when prices are elevated.

You draw your own conclusions.

A Gift to My Children: A Father’s Lessons for Life and Investing

MB Wealth Blog

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

What Recovery? America’s Problems “Getting Worse, Not Better,” Jim Rogers Says

*Note: Video’s are my edit. – MPM

Jesse Livermore: World’s Greatest Stock Trader (reading currently)

Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street’s Champion Day Trader

Crash Proof 2.0: How to Profit From the Economic Collapse

Way of the Turtle: The Secret Methods that Turned Ordinary People into Legendary Traders

And my personal favorite (life changing in more than just investing):

The Zurich Axioms

Review: Crush It! by Gary Vaynerchuk

(Here is my Facebook, New Twitter and The G Manifesto Facebook Page)

Click Here to buy Crush It!: Why NOW Is the Time to Cash In on Your Passion

Finished reading Crush It! Why Now is the Time to Cash in on your Passion by Gary Vaynerchuk a few weeks ago. Good read.

If you are not familiar with Gary Vaynerchuck, he is a cat that took a family liquor store from $5 million in sales to $50 million in sales using the Internet and social media. He also got a 7 sticks book deal. Not bad in a Down Economy.

His book is basically about using your passion in life to make money. The book gives some great advice on exactly how to do that and build your personal brand using social media.

This is a pretty remarkable time we live in. Younger G’s should appreciate it. You really can become anything you want to these days. Manifesto Destiny.

Why you should by this book:

1. If you are unhappy with your job and you would like to do something that you love doing.
2. If you want to learn how to turn your passion into a money maker.
3. You want to learn whats going down in the world today.

I say buy it.

Click Here to buy Crush It!: Why NOW Is the Time to Cash In on Your Passion

The Rest is Up to You…

Michael Porfirio Mason
AKA The Peoples Champ
AKA GFK, Jr.
AKA The Sly, Slick and the Wicked
AKA The Voodoo Child
The Guide to Getting More out of Life
http://www.thegmanifesto.com

Maze – Back in Stride

How to Become a Millionaire (if you are a girl) in Eight Easy Steps

(Here is my Facebook and New Twitter)

Click Here for Fundamentals Of Offshore Banking: How To Open Accounts Almost Anywhere

I just thought of this full proof plan to become a Millionaire if you are a girl.

Here are the steps:

Step One: Be super hot. (Country or Southern accent preferable. This will help Middle America “relate” to you.) Blond is best. Not too exotic.

Step Two: Get reasonably famous. Get on a wack Reality TV Show, make a sex-tape with some weesh, actor. Or better yet, do both.

Step Three: Gain weight, get super fat. I mean really fat.

Step Four: Go to the beach while super fat and let the paparazzi take tons of pictures of you in a bikini.

Step Five: Set up a company that produces some kind of herbal weight loss drug. It doesn’t have to work (none of them do anyways).

Step Six: Lose all the weight.

Step Seven: Go to the beach, and let all the mags take pictures of you.

Step Eight: Go on talk show circuit and yap about how you used your miracle weight loss pill to shed the fat.

Every idiot fat f*ck housewife in Middle America will buy your pills for $59.99 per month (Make sure it’s a re-bill.).

Count money. It’s going to be in the millions.

And yes, I do accept thank you cards.

Click Here for Fundamentals Of Offshore Banking: How To Open Accounts Almost Anywhere

The Rest is Up to You…

Michael Porfirio Mason
AKA The Peoples Champ
AKA GFK, Jr.
AKA The Sly, Slick and the Wicked
AKA The Voodoo Child
The Guide to Getting More out of Life
The Blueprint for Money Making
http://www.thegmanifesto.com

Raekwon – Catalina (feat. Lyfe Jennings)

Don’t let it go to your head, Young G

(Here is my Facebook and New Twitter)

Click Here for Dunhill Silver Turbo Sport Series Lighter

So, you have been reading The G Manifesto for a couple of years.

Things are going well:

• You have been flipping bricks.

• You got an ill crew of Cycos.

• You are Pulling Vicky Cristina’s like they are going out of style.

• Your suit collection is illmatic and you have a trip planned to Savile Row.

• Southern California Girls on Tuesday, Nightlife Princesses on Wednesday, Exotic Dancers on Thursday and Platinum Diggers over the weekend at The Del Mar Racetrack.

• How much better can it get? You got the leather and the wood kit all up in the whip.

• You are defeating the DJ, and brushing aside the male model, and the Plastic Surgeon.

• You even KO’ed a Ed Hardy wearing Reality TV star in front of one of Brent Bolthouse’s wack clubs.

• You walk around with a G in your pocket at all times and got the Dunhill lighter for mad smokes.

• Every silicone dream in Las Vegas all of a sudden thinks you are handsome.

• You are starting to make payoffs. And the older crews are giving you mad props.

• You and Standing Over your rivals.

• You collecting dough, for sho as you sip the Mo, and you are hitting the ho you never hit befo’.

• Hell, you even planned a Art Heist for three months and pulled it off.

• You have bags filled with jewelry stashed in the kitchen.

• You have a bowl of coke next to the bed.

• You are treated like a movie star with muscle. You have it all.

• You have no worries.

• You are invincible.

You have arrived.

Now is exactly the time to worry Young G:

• This is when the drug use starts taking over.

• This is when you start getting sloppy, and forget to take the drugs and heaters out of the car.

• This is when one of your crew gets popped and might flip (usually it’s the one who should have never been in your crew).

• This is when the Feds have you on their radar.

• This is when real gangsters and Jackals smell blood.

• This is when the real Standover men introduce themselves to you.

• This is when you lose a load and the older G’s aren’t so friendly anymore.

• This is when it is time to travel.

Remember:

One swoop doesn’t make you the shit
Stay true to who you are don’t never forget
Keep your feet on solid ground
Cause what goes up, must come down

Click Here for Dunhill Silver Turbo Sport Series Lighter

The Rest is Up to You…

Michael Porfirio Mason
AKA The Peoples Champ
AKA GFK, Jr.
AKA The Sly, Slick and the Wicked
AKA The Voodoo Child
The Guide to Getting More out of Life
http://www.thegmanifesto.com

Jean Carne – Don’t let it go to your head

Drake – Successful Lil Wayne & Trey Songz

The Line in the Sand
By: Matthew Bradbard

Click Here for Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression

Energies Look for guidance from the dollar and the stock market to help positioning in energies. What will be on our radar this week is buying December $75/80 call spreads for under $2000 for clients wishing to gain long exposure in Crude oil, if the support holds? As we wrote last week we would not suggest out right shorts in oil but to play the ratio we have suggested buying puts in oil and calls in natural gas expecting the spread to narrow. As for the distillates we see no viable play. We continue to try to catch a falling knife in natural gas which has yet to show signs of a bottom.

Click Here for Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression

Livestock We will be advising clients to exit their October lean hogs calls but too remain long on their December contracts. Prices have risen 11% in the last 2 weeks and be may be due for a breather. We rarely trade feeder cattle or pork bellies and have no suggestions for the time being. October becomes the front month in live cattle this week. With prices trading at an exorbitant premium to cash expect December and the forward months to gain on October. We have clients positioned in options and futures to take advantage of this.

Financials
Stocks: Equities continue to climb the wall of worry but at this time we are more content on the sidelines than bucking a trend and getting short and certainly new long entries are late to the party. For stock investors who have not lightened up in their portfolio what are you waiting for?

Bonds: Prices in Treasuries could go either way and with the NFP # out on Friday we suggest to sit on your hands. Longer term as a position trade we still are suggesting long dated puts in the Euro-dollar and will be using rallies to position clients short futures.

Currencies I’ve been predicting a dollar rally for the past few weeks and as you know it has yet to materialize. I still feel it is in the cards as displayed by the sharp baffling rallies last week. This will not be a trade we take but it cannot be ignored as the effect on other markets. The main happenings this week will be 2 central bank meeting; with the RBA and ECB expected to keep rates as is at 3% and 1% respectively. Our only currency exposure with clients is short Aussie dollars in September which is more of a hedge. If we start to see a correction in commodities we will most likely move out to December.

Grains This summer’s weather has been mostly favorable for corn and soybeans, but concerns remain that both crops may be vulnerable to yield losses this fall due to late planting. Crops look huge but there is virtually no margin for error. If we do in fact get an early freeze hello bull market. We have client’s positioned long December corn and wheat and are currently carrying a loss. Before we commit more money we would like to see more of a conformation of a bottom. A base looks like it is being formed but the sentiment remains bearish on both crops. We may take a look at rough rice for clients because of the weather problems in India. We will need to do some further investigation being we do not trade this market frequently.

Softs There is more sideways action in the softs sector than trending markets with the exception of sugar which broke out to new contract highs last week. We were late getting back into sugar for clients but have a majority positioned long currently in the March 10’ contracts. See previous comments. Sugar has both technical and fundamental support to see higher pricing and it has been almost twice its current price, albeit about 30 years ago. Outside of sugar our exposure with clients is short cocoa which longer term looks like a good trade if the dollar rallies but the October puts clients currently own go off Friday so we need a decline immediately. We have long entries in cotton, oj, and coffee on our radar but have yet to commit funds.

Click Here for Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression

Metals We rarely trade copper but prices should be followed as it is a barometer of the overall economy. It will be a good litmus test to see how prices respond at $3.00. Gold is sending mixed signals and although longer term we expect much higher pricing in the immediate future I do not have a good feel. We would rather be long than short but we would pare your position size and make sure you have stop loses being a dollar rally could be painful. Furthermore if and when the stock market corrects will gold act as a flight to quality? Silver remains our favorite long trade. It may sound like a broken record so we will keep it short and sweet, clients will be positioned long silver for the next 2/3 years expecting $25+ ounce. This move will not happen overnight and it will not be in a straight line. Currently we suggest call spreads in December.

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Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading MB Wealth recommends that you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if commodity trading is appropriate for you. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. There are no guarantees of market outcome stated, everything stated above are our opinions.