Speculators may be running for the exit doors on talks of more government involvement in the futures market, but I feel their exit may be premature seeing that the government is just talking at this point. Since the government has not screwed things up enough they are now discussing more stringent controls in the commodities markets. I welcome regulation when it works and the theory of instituting position limits sounds good, however the likelihood of volatility decreasing on that action is debatable. Contrary to popular opinion it is the speculator that plays a vital role in providing liquidity in the marketplace and without their involvement price distortions may in fact increase. Is it completely impracticable to think that changes in supply & demand could have a more significant impact on pricing? Perhaps the fact that commodities are becoming a more mainstream asset class, recent estimates show that $25 billion has poured into commodities in the first half of 09’.
To find out exactly how we are positioning our clients in commodity futures and options, Contact us today at 1-888-920-9997. Don’t forget to tell them The G Manifesto Sent you.
Energies
The DOE reported crude oil supplies were down 2.9 million barrels, supplies of gasoline were up 1.9 million barrels and heating oil supplies were up 2.0 million barrels. August oil traded lower by $5.65 losing ground 7 out of the last 8 sessions, the longest losing streak since December. Support comes in at the 100 day moving average at 58.82 followed by 56.00. Resistance is at 62.00 followed by the 50 day moving average at 65.15. Currently we have no exposure with clients. August RBOB was lower by 10.25 cents. A potential triple bottom has formed between 1.6250 and 1.63 but stronger support is seen at 1.55/1.56. Being prices are extremely oversold we may see a bounce, resistance is first seen at 1.72 followed by 1.77. August heating oil lost 16.94 trading lower the last 8 consecutive sessions. Prices at the end of the week started to show some resolve closing almost 4 cents off their lows. Support at 1.50 resistance at 1.60.
The DOE reported underground supplies of natural gas were up 75 billion cubic feet last week to 2.796 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now up 27% from a year ago. August natural gas was down 24 cents to a new contract low. We’ve been buying clients October $1 call spreads now for the last 3 to 4 weeks and are down but not out. If we do not see a reversal within the next 7/10 days we may start buying November instead of October. Last week’s low at 3.34 should support with resistance at 3.60 followed by 3.80.
To view our full commentary which includes the sectors of energies, livestock, currencies, financials, grains, softs, and metals, subscribe by visiting this link: http://mbwealth.com/subscribe.html.
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Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading MB Wealth recommends that you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if commodity trading is appropriate for you. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. There are no guarantees of market outcome stated, everything stated above are our opinions.
It is vital to have a trading plan when investing your hard earned capital. Many of these lessons may seem elementary, but what fascinates me is talking to fellow commodity traders over the years and finding there is still a lack of discipline.
Below you will find some common disciplines that as a Commodities trader you should abide by in most instances. Ironically this list was complied from a pamphlet printed 30 years ago entitled; “How Young Millionaires Trade Commodities” and virtually all the principles still apply. Supply and demand still rule the roost in determining pricing in commodities. Over the years the dynamics have certainly changed, but what hasn’t is human behavior, and the effects of greed and fear in the trading community. That is why principles that worked 3 decades ago still apply in today’s market.
1. Use money you can afford to lose – always trade with risk capital
2. Know yourself– be disciplined, always controlling your emotions
3. Start small – do not over commit until you learn the mechanics
4. Don’t over commit – always keep excess margin in your account
5. Isolate your trading from your desire for profit – try to eliminate “hope” from your trading plan
6. Don’t form new opinions during trading hours – do not let day to day fluctuations change your overall plan
7. Take a trading break– trading everyday may cloud your judgment
8. Don’t follow the crowd– if everyone is leaning one way it is most likely the wrong way
9. Block out other opinions – do not be influenced by others once you form an opinion
10. When you’re not sure, stand aside– it is ok to be in cash and not in the market
11. Try to avoid market orders– always using market orders to buy and sell shows a lack of discipline
12. Trade the most active option month – look for where the open interest and liquidity exists
13. Trade divergence between related commodities – large divergences within the same sector generally present an opportunity
14. Don’t trade too many commodities at once – following several markets at once is difficult and usually costly
15. Trade the opening range breakout – breaking out of the opening range generally sets the tone for the direction of the coming move
16. Trade the breakout of the previous day’s range– this helps getting in and out of positions
17. Trade the breakout of the weekly range – again like the daily breakouts use breakouts as buy and sell signals
18. Trade the breakout of the monthly range – the longer time frame the more market momentum behind your trading decision
19. Build a trading pyramid – when adding to a position add fewer contracts than your base commitment
20. Never put your entire position on at one price – let the market prove you are right
With half of 2009 behind us investors may be wondering if they have enough exposure to commodities in their portfolios. Several commodities gained value in the first 6 months of the year on expectations for a global economic recovery and on worries of inflation. There are many uncertainties that remain unanswered, if, how strong, and the sustainability of this recovery. It may be smart to cover some of your commodity longs or scale back your exposure as it appears that in the immediate future we could see some give back. We’re convinced this will not be a reversal but yet just a pause in a bull market with many more years of life.
To find out exactly how we are positioning our clients in commodity futures and options, Contact us today at 1-888-920-9997. Don’t forget to mention The G Manifesto sent you.
Financials Stocks: For stocks to move out of their recent range and have any chance of higher ground the economic growth must catch up to the markets’ expectations, which we think is doubtful. Last week the Dow slipped for a third consecutive week losing 158 points, just less than 2% to 8281. The S&P 500 fell 22 points or 2.5% to 896. The NASDAQ gave up 42 points or 2.3% to 1797. As the second quarter concludes the latest rally seems to have run out of gas. Reflected in the lack of volume investors aren’t convinced a new bull was born. As long as prices stay below the 50 day moving averages we expect further downside; in the Dow at 8380 and the S&P 500 at 904. Setting the tone this week what comes out of the G-8 on economic policy, interest rates, the dollar remaining as the reserve currency, inflation vs. deflation and further credit developments.
Bonds: The NFP # put the unemployment at 9.5% in June with a loss of 467,000 jobs, a larger loss than expected. September 30-yr bonds were higher by 20 ticks last week trading to their highest level since 5/22. We may still see 120’00 but trail stops on longs as prices have become overbought. Resistance comes in at 120’16 with support at 118’00. September 10-yr notes were higher by 17.5 ticks last week. Support is seen at 116’00 with resistance at 117’16. March 10’ Euro-dollars gained 10 ticks last week. Exhaustion was seen late last week and being prices are within 15 ticks of their contract highs we love the risk/reward dynamic getting short at these levels. Continue to scale into short futures and buy puts in the March 10’ contract.
Currencies
The ECB met and kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.0%. The Euro lost 33 ticks last week closing once again above 1.40. For now the 20 day moving average appears to be the line in the sand as prices have failed to close below that level after multiple attempts. On a breach of the 20 day moving average at 1.3990 expect a trade down to 1.38/1.3825. Resistance is seen at 1.4150.
The Aussie was lower by 111 ticks closing just under the 20 day moving average. The RBA is scheduled to meet this week and is expected to leave rates alone at 3.0%. Support is seen at.7825 followed by .7750 with resistance at .8050.
The Swissie was virtually unchanged gaining 2 ticks last week as sideways action continues now for the fourth week. The activity was anything but boring with last week’s trading range almost 3 ½ cents, with intervention still looming. Support comes in at .9140, resistance at .9270 followed by .9320.
The Loonie was lower by 67 ticks as weakness in commodities may have contributed. Last week’s low at .8576 should support while resistance is seen at .8760. Trade ideas: buy the September 89 call for approximately $1,000, buy the 85/90 call spreads for $1,900 or get long the futures with stops below .8560.
The unemployment rate in Japan came out last week with the highest level in five years. Last week the yen was lower by 56 ticks, it’s first negative week in the last four weeks. Support comes in at the 20 day moving average at 1.0370 with resistance at 1.0525. If equities continue lower don’t rule out a trade over 1.06. Aggressive traders could purchase September 110 calls for $1,000 with an objective of $1,500.
The Kiwi was lower by 153 ticks with the short term trend clearly turning lower. Resistance is seen at .6370/6390 with support at .6200 followed by .6125.
The US dollar index gained 62 ticks last week closing just above the 20 day moving average. Support comes in at 79.80 resistance at 81.25. We’re expecting a trade up to 82.00 and although we may not trade the dollar most markets will be affected on that move.
To view our full commentary which includes the sectors of energies, livestock, currencies, financials, grains, softs, and metals, subscribe to our 4 week free trial by visiting this link: http://mbwealth.com/subscribe.html. Don’t forget to mention The G Manifesto sent you.
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Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading MB Wealth recommends that you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if commodity trading is appropriate for you. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. There are no guarantees of market outcome stated, everything stated above are our opinions.
Floyd Mayweather Jr. has said rumblings about his financial troubles are nothing more than rumors, but public records obtained by The Associated Press show the boxer nicknamed “Money” owes about $6.4 million to the Internal Revenue Service and others.
The IRS hit the former pound-for-pound boxing king with a lien in October for $6.17 million in unpaid taxes from 2007, according to the Clark County Recorder in Las Vegas. A New Jersey Superior Court judgment from the same year shows he owes $193,000 in state taxes there.
Leonard Ellerbe, Mayweather’s manager, disputed the documents and said he believed they were inaccurate.
“Floyd Mayweather does not have a problem with the IRS,” Ellerbe told the AP on Thursday. “He doesn’t owe the IRS $6.1 million … I don’t (care) what a lien says.”
“When you have a problem with them, you ain’t hard to find — ask Wesley Snipes,” Ellerbe said. “You go to jail, they come take your (stuff). He doesn’t have a problem.”
Snipes, the actor, is currently appealing convictions of willfully failing to file his income taxes and his three-year prison sentence.
“(Mayweather) is free to move and do anything and everything he wants to do with no problems at all. None whatsoever,” Ellerbe said.
Besides taxes, county records in Las Vegas show the former five-division champ has unresolved debts worth $9,400 to three homeowners associations. Other liens filed with the county say the boxer did not pay nearly $3,900 to a contractor that programmed electronics at one of his homes and $320.10 to his trash collector.
Mayweather, who is returning to the ring after retiring a year ago, has said his scheduled September fight against Juan Manuel Marquez isn’t all about a big payday, but a lucrative purse couldn’t hurt in his ongoing battle to keep up on his bills.
The IRS and others use liens to secure payments by placing a claim on the property of individuals who owe them money. Liens damage a person’s credit rating and remain on credit reports longer than other negative information, such as late payments. Once unpaid taxes are satisfied, the IRS files lien releases saying so with the county recorder.
Raphael Tulino, an IRS spokesman, said Thursday that the agency does not comment specifically on individual tax situations. The IRS said in the October lien itself that it has demanded payment, but the 2007 taxes remained unpaid.
A clerk in New Jersey Superior Court said Thursday that the $193,000 judgment there had not been satisfied.
Mayweather (39-0, 25 KOs) has been socked with liens in the past and paid them off, according to recorder records in Clark County. The IRS filed liens totaling nearly $6.3 million for unpaid taxes from 2001, 2003, 2005 and 2006, and three homeowners associations also filed claims against the boxer that were later resolved, county records show.
Asked about the liens that had been resolved, Ellerbe said: “We’re talking about what’s going on right now. I’m sure you might have been two days late paying your rent two, five years ago.”
The former Olympic bronze medalist made more than $50 million inside the ring during his final 18 months of boxing before he abruptly retired last year and turned his attention to show business.
Mayweather has proved to be a bankable celebrity outside the ring.
He has appeared on ABC’s “Dancing With the Stars” in 2007 and is featured in a current AT&T television commercial. He has said that he made $8 million last year without fighting.
He also cashed in his “Pretty Boy” nickname for “Money.”
“America is built on two things — controversy and money,” Mayweather told HBO before he defeated Oscar De La Hoya in May 2007. “It’s not a black thing, it’s not a white thing, it’s a green thing.”
Drake – Must Hate Money ft. Rich Boy
The cable network documented both fighters leading up to their match for its “24/7” reality series. The same episode showed Mayweather hand-counting $10,000 stacks of $100 bills and bragging about winning $34,000 after betting on an NBA basketball game.
“I ain’t gotta carry no black card, I like carrying mine in cash — get the job done better,” Mayweather said, cracking a grin.
Mayweather received a reported $20 million to wrestle on WWE’s “WrestleMania XXIV” in 2008, part of his efforts to increase his entertainment profile. At a promotional event for that appearance in Los Angeles, Mayweather incited a couple hundred fans by whipping out a money roll and repeatedly tossing $100, $50 and $20 bills into the crowd.
The boxer likes to be seen with a wad of cash, large entourages and expensive jewelry.
“You see me — 250 on the wrist, $300,000 on the pinky, $600,000 on the neck,” Mayweather said on another “24/7” episode filmed before his fight with Ricky Hatton in December 2007.
YouTube videos show Mayweather tossing $100 bills into crowds at night clubs — known as “making it rain” for the way the bills look when they fall.
The Las Vegas Review-Journal labeled him the “reigning king of flash and cash” in 2007 for regularly showering patrons and his entourage with cash and expensive Cristal champagne. The newspaper said that Mayweather and his entourage travel in a three-car fleet made up of a Rolls Royce Phantom, a Maybach and a Mercedes McLaren SLR.
“I’ve seen him make it rain at least 20 times in the last couple years,” Branden Powers of Poetry nightclub told the newspaper. “Pound for pound, he’s the best tipper.”
Ellerbe said Mayweather’s comments about money were made just to promote fights.
“Him saying he got a bunch of money, that’s an image, that’s an image. It has nothing to do with his business,” Ellerbe said. “And he can say anything he wants to, but I’m giving you what the facts are. And the facts are Floyd Mayweather does not have a problem with the IRS, or anybody else, for that matter.”
Mayweather’s comeback fight, delayed until Sept. 19 after Mayweather damaged rib cartilage while training, had been scheduled for July 18 at the MGM Grand hotel-casino in Las Vegas.
Mayweather and Marquez (50-4-1, 37 KOs) are expected to fight at a catch-weight of about 143 pounds, eight more than Marquez has ever fought and the lightest Mayweather has been since 2005.
With the intriguing showdown between Floyd Mayweather and Juan Manuel Marquez rescheduled for Sept. 19 in Las Vegas, HBO Sports’ groundbreaking “24/7” reality franchise, which has captured seven Sports Emmy® Awards, will premiere MAYWEATHER/MARQUEZ 24/7 on Saturday, August 29 (10:15-10:45 p.m. ET/PT).
The all-new, four-episode, all-access series spotlights a host of intriguing storylines, with Floyd Mayweather, the sport’s most irrepressible superstar, returning after a year-and-a-half absence to face Juan Manuel Marquez, one of boxing’s most accomplished performers, as they prepare for their September pay-per-view showdown at the MGM Grand Garden Arena.
Ross Greenburg said: “Now that the fight has been rescheduled, we are excited to resume production. This latest edition of ‘24/7’ features all the ingredients that we look for in greenlighting the ‘24/7’ franchise: big-time boxing stars, engaging storylines and in Floyd’s case, a larger-than-life personality that is tailor-made for reality television.”
Episodes two and three of MAYWEATHER/MARQUEZ 24/7 debut on subsequent Saturdays – September 5 (10:00-10:30 p.m.) and 12 (10:00-10:30 p.m.) – while the finale debuts Friday, September 18 (9:30-10:00 p.m.), just one night before the fight. All four episodes will have multiple replay dates on HBO, and the series will also be available on HBO On Demand.
Michael Porfirio Mason
AKA The Peoples Champ
AKA GFK, Jr.
AKA The Sly, Slick and the Wicked
AKA The Voodoo Child
The Guide to Getting More out of Life
http://www.thegmanifesto.com
At this point I’m not sure whether the global recovery has begun or this is just a head fake, who will win the tug of war between inflation and deflation, if Treasuries are the next bubble, if the buying from China is sustainable or when interest rates will be increased. All good questions and heated debates but what really matters is what is working, being agile and spotting opportunities where the risk/reward dynamic makes sense both long & short in commodities is what seems to be working.
To find out exactly how we are positioning our clients in commodity futures and options, Contact us today at 1-888-920-9997. Don’t forget to tell them The G Manifesto sent you.
Energies
The DOE reported crude oil supplies were down 3.8 million barrels last week, supplies of gasoline were up 3.9 million barrels while heating oil supplies were down 100,000 barrels. August crude oil finished lower by $1.04 last week. On the weekly chart a bearish engulfing candle formed, if confirmed expect more downside. Continue to use a trade above $72 or below $67 to determine the next leg. Our clients will most likely be buyers between $62 and $65. August RBOB was lower by just over 4 ½ cents as prices are 22 cents off their highs from just 2 weeks ago. Use 1.8150/1.8300 as support with resistance coming in between 1.92/1.9350. If crude falters expect a trade down to 1.70/1.75; the 50 day moving average comes in at 1.7585. August heating oil retreated just over 4 ½ cents as well. Resistance is seen at 1.85 support at 1.75, the 50 day moving average in heating oil is at 1.6470. Crude and both product were down the last 2 weeks, what will this week bring?
The DOE reported underground supplies of natural gas were up 94 billion cubic feet last week to 2.020 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now up 31% from a year ago. August natural gas was down 8 cents but did manage to close just over the 50 day moving average. Support is seen at 3.85 with resistance at 4.15 followed by the 100 day moving average at 4.27. We continue to accumulate October $5/6 call spreads for clients.
Livestock
August live cattle traded higher by 10 ticks last week making their way to positive ground now three weeks running. We maintain that an interim bottom was made three weeks ago and since prices have moved 4% off their lows. We are still holding the long August live cattle/short October live cattle spread for clients expecting the spread to come in. Support at 81.60/81.80 with resistance at 82.90 followed by 83.50. August feeder cattle were higher by 72 ticks last week and in three weeks we’ve gone from oversold to overbought. Resistance is seen at 99.90 with support between 97.80/98.00.
The USDA reported there were 66.08 million hogs and pigs in the US on June 1st, down 2.0% from a year ago, roughly as expected. 5.97 million lean hogs were kept for breeding, down 2.7% from a year ago and less than expected. August lean hogs fell 3.80 last week or 6% to a new contract low. Currently some clients are short August futures and long (2) August 62 calls. There is little to no support on the daily chart, resistance comes in at 59.50.
To view our full commentary which includes the sectors of energies, livestock, currencies, financials, grains, softs, and metals, subscribe to our 4 week free trial by visiting this link: http://mbwealth.com/subscribe.html. Don’t forget to tell them The G Manifesto sent you.
_____________________________________________________________________________________Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading MB Wealth recommends that you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if commodity trading is appropriate for you. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. There are no guarantees of market outcome stated, everything stated above are our opinions. Calculations of profit and loss have not factored in commissions and fees.
