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Do option traders need to be fluent in Greek?

» 05 June 2009 » In money » No Comments

Do option traders need to be fluent in Greek?
June 4, 2009
By: Matthew Bradbard

Buy The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down by Peter Schiff

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MB Wealth Corp. is not responsible and does not endorse anything out side of the content of this article authored by Matthew Bradbard; President of MB Wealth

The Option Greeks
When trading commodities there are 2 basic ways to trade: futures or options. Depending on the portfolio size, the risk tolerance and ultimate goals we will suggest assorted strategies to take advantage of the same anticipated move in an underlying commodity. That may mean an individual speculating on gold moving higher if they foresee inflation, a farmer buying put options in agriculture as a hedge or perhaps a combination of futures and options depending on the exact plan. Trading futures ultimately means one is trading on margin which some are not comfortable, with while trading options may offer an alternative without the sleepless nights. When purchasing options one’s risk is limited to the premium paid plus any fees for the transaction. When writing or granting options the risk becomes greater, without going into intricate details, it may be useful to be more familiar with the terms below when trading commodity options. Find below an explanation of the “option Greeks.” It is important for an active options trader to at least become familiar with these characteristics since he/she may need to make quick decisions about trading strategies and risk management on the fly.

Delta
Delta is the amount by which the option changes compared to the underlying commodity. It is a measure of the probability that an option will expire in-the-money. Call deltas can be interpreted as the probability that the option will finish in-the-money. Put deltas can be interpreted as -1 times the probability that the option will finish in-the-money. An at-the-money option, which has a delta of approximately 0.5, has roughly a 50/50 chance of ending up “in-the-money”. For example, if an at-the-money sugar call option has a delta of 0.5, and if sugar makes a 100 tick move higher, the premium on the option will increase approximately by 50 ticks (0.5 x 100 = 50), or $560 (each tick in premium is worth $11.20).

An explanation of delta values is below:
Call options: 0 to 1 Put options: -1 to 0
In the money options: Delta approaches 1 (call: +1, put: -1)
At the money options: Delta is about 0.5 (call: +0.5, put: -0.5)
Deep out of the money options: Delta approaches 0
Long calls have a positive delta: You want the market to go up
Short calls have a negative delta: You want the market to go down
Long puts have a negative delta: You want the market to go down
Short puts have a positive delta: You want the market to go up

Gamma
Gamma, measures the rate of change of delta. When call options are deep out-of-the-money, they generally have a small delta. This is because changes in the underlying commodity bring about only minute changes in the price of the option. But as the call option gets closer to the money, resulting from a continued rise in the price of the underlying commodity, the delta gets larger.

Buy The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down by Peter Schiff

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The gamma of a long option position (both calls and puts) is always positive. At-the-money options have the largest gamma. The further an option goes “in-the-money” or, “out-of-the-money” will affect the gamma. If you are long gamma you expect the underlying to make large moves. Traders with long positions expect positive gamma. If you are short gamma you expect the underlying to remain relatively inactive. Traders with short positions expect negative gamma. Gamma is a useful indication of the risk associated with a futures position. A large gamma number, whether positive or negative indicates a high degree of risk and a low gamma number indicates a low degree of risk.

Theta

Theta is defined as the change in the price of an option for a 1 day decrease in the time left before expiration. At-the-money options have the greatest time value and the greatest rate of time decay (theta). The further an option goes “in-the-money” or “out-of-the-money”, will affect the theta. As volatility falls, the time value declines and hence theta will also decline. Simply put Theta is the rate at which an option loses its value as each day passes. The inherent assumption is that the options are a decaying asset. The way I explain this is like a melting ice cube on a warm summer day. Long options have negative theta. Short options have positive theta. As time passes, the theta of at-the-money options increases, the theta of deep-in-the-money and out-of-the-money options decreases.

Theta has the exact opposite characteristics of gamma. Thus the size of a gamma position correlates to the size of the theta position. A large positive gamma position goes in hand with a large negative theta position, while a large negative gamma position goes hand in hand with a large positive theta position. What this means is that every option position is a tradeoff between market movement and time decay.

Vega
Vega is the change in the value of an option for a 1 percentage point increase in implied volatility of the underlying commodities price. Implied volatility is measured as the annualized standard deviation of a commodity’s daily price changes. The Vega of a long option position (calls and puts) is always positive. At-the-money options have the greatest Vega. The further an option goes “in-the-money” or “out-of-the-money”, the smaller the Vega. As time passes, Vega decreases. Time amplifies the effect of volatility changes. As a result, Vega is greater for longer dated options than for shorter dated options. Simply put Vega is the option’s change in theoretical value with a change in volatility. Most options have a positive Vega because they gain value with rising volatility and lose with falling volatility. Vega of most options decline as time decreases and you get closer to expiration. Vega tells you approximately how much an option price will increase or decrease given an increase or decrease in the level of implied volatility.

In conclusion it would be beneficial to be at least familiar with these terms when trading options. While it is not a necessity to be an expert we believe knowledge is power and it helps to know when you are making or loosing money and WHY?

For specific strategies contact us via e-mail www.mbwealth.com or telephone at (888) 920-9997 / 954-929-9997. Don’t forget to tell them The G Manifesto sent you. For the most part investors reading this analysis want to be more hands on, however we suggest taking a look at our managed futures section and consider diversifying further via CTA’s with proven track records: MB Wealth Managed Futures

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading MB Wealth recommends that you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if commodity trading is appropriate for you. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. There are no guarantees of market outcome stated, everything stated above are our opinions. Calculations of profit and loss have not factored in commissions and fees.

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An Evolving Market: Why education is vital in trading

» 01 June 2009 » In money » 1 Comment

An Evolving Market: Why education is vital in trading

Buy The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down by Peter Schiff

Click Here for Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street’s Champion Day Trader

We have continued to do our weekly newsletters and daily blogs as scheduled but have not done as many topic specific articles of late. We are reaching out to get some suggestions from would be commodity investors or active traders on some topics of interest or subjects you would like clarified. This week we will be publishing an article on why understanding the “Greeks” is important to commodity options trading. E-mail me or call for further suggestions.

To find out exactly how we are positioning our clients in commodity futures and options,
Contact us today at 1-888-920-9997. Don’t forget to tell them The G Manifesto sent you.

Financials

Stocks: The Dow rose 223 points or 2.7% to 8500, the S&P picked up 3.6% or 32 points to 919 while the NASDAQ gained 82 points or 5% to 1774. With May now at our backs we’ve put in three positive months in a row, marking the best 3 month performance by percentage since 98’. This is an improvement from the doomsayer’s just months ago. We’ve been consistent in our assessment and still expect a 10-15% correction is around the corner. For much of May the S&P was range bound between 875 and 930 and the Dow between 8100 and 8550, will this continue? Although we expect a downward break, the move out of these ranges should signal the next direction.

Buy The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down by Peter Schiff

Click Here for Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street’s Champion Day Trader

Bonds: September 30-yr bonds were lower by 11.5 ticks last week; trading lower 9 out of the last 10 weeks. Prices were able to rally just over 3 basis points off the weekly lows so we should get an additional bounce. Support is seen between 116’10/116’20 with resistance at 118’20. In the coming weeks we expect a move up to 120’00/121’00. September 10-yr notes were lower by 18.5 ticks last week. Support is seen at 116’00 while resistance comes in between 117’20/118’00. As for the Euro-dollar, stay short March 10’ as long as 99.095 remains as the contract high. As for options we advised clients to buy December 09’ 99.00, 98.75, and 98.50 puts. Contact us for pricing. NFP # out Friday; loss of 525,000 jobs and unemployment rate just over 9% is factored in.

Currencies

There are multiple central bank meetings this week; RBA on Tuesday, BoE, ECB and BoC on Thursday.

The commodity currencies racked up big gains last week. The Aussie finished 164 ticks higher and in the last 13 weeks has made it to higher ground 10 of those weeks. For the month of May the Aussie finished 27% higher. We could see a 5-8 cent correction with no chart damage. Resistance is at .8100 while support is at .7850 followed by .7700. The Loonie gained 223 ticks, higher the last 9 days. It continues to follow energies and metals which have burst higher of late. Resistance is between .9225/.9275. .9000 should serve as support but don’t rule out a trade to .8700.

The Kiwi picked up 216 ticks and has been positive 5 out of the last 6 weeks. Support is seen at .6250 while resistance is at .6500. These 3 currencies may have moved too far too fast and a correction should follow.

The Euro was higher by 108 ticks last week as all attempts at lower trades were met with buying. Support comes in between 1.39/1.3925 while resistance comes in at 1.4175 followed by 1.4350.
The Swissie continues to follow the Euro’s lead, up 141 ticks last week trading to levels not seen since January. Resistance comes in at .9450 and support at .9250.

The British pound was higher by 215 ticks last week trading to a 7 month high and after 2 failed attempts to get short we would stand aside. Resistance is seen at 1.6425 and support at 1.5725.
The yen was lower by 50 ticks last week but things could have been much worse if had not been for the 189 tick advance on Friday. Support is seen at the 50 day moving average at 1.0250 while resistance comes in between 1.06/1.0625. We advised clients to buy July 105/108 call spreads last week for $1000 with a target of $2000+.

The US dollar was lower by 74 ticks last week to trade to its lowest price since 9/8 making a new 8 month low. We see no significant support until 77.50 but prices are over extended to the downside so don’t rule out a dead cat bounce. Resistance comes in at 80.00 followed by 81.00.

Continue Reading about Metals

To view our full commentary which includes the sectors of energies, livestock, currencies, financials, grains, softs, and metals, subscribe to our 4 week free trial by visiting this link: http://mbwealth.com/subscribe.html.
_____________________________________________________________________________________Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading MB Wealth recommends that you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if commodity trading is appropriate for you. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. There are no guarantees of market outcome stated, everything stated above are our opinions. Calculations of profit and loss have not factored in commissions and fees.

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Paris Jewel Heist for $8Million

» 31 May 2009 » In Crime, diamonds, money, Travel » No Comments

Paris Jewel Heist for $8Million

Jewellery worth more than 6m euros (£5m, $8m) has been stolen from an exclusive Paris store in broad daylight by a lone gunman, police sources say.

Dressed in a custom suit and fedora, the man entered Chopard on Place Vendome and reportedly made staff hand over 15 pieces of jewellery at gunpoint.

Click Here for Borsalino Hats

The mid-afternoon hold-up lasted two minutes, after which the robber, said to be in his 50s, calmly walked out.

Chopard jewellery is worn by stars at the Oscars and Cannes film festival.

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Place Vendome is an elegant old square known for its luxury hotels, and is also home to numerous jewellery stores as well as the French justice ministry.

In December, armed robbers stole jewels worth at least 80m euros ($102m) from a store near the French capital’s famous Champs-Elysees avenue.

As many as four robbers, two disguised as women, raided the Harry Winston’s store and stole nearly all its valuables.

‘Like any other customer’

The Vendome robber struck just before 1500 (1300 GMT) on Saturday, at a time when, in good weather, the square is usually full of strollers.

“According to the first set of information we received, it was a man in his 50s, dressed in a chic costume and wearing a Borsalino [fedora] hat,” Olivier Lebon, a police union representative, told Reuters news agency.

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“He came in like any other customer, pointed his gun at employees and asked for about 15 pieces.”

It was not immediately known if the robber had an accomplice waiting for him outside the store.

A sales assistant working in an adjacent jeweller’s store told AFP news agency she had heard and seen nothing. “We were working,” she added.

Late on Saturday afternoon, the store at No 1 Place Vendome stood closed behind iron shutters, an AFP correspondent reports.

Only some leather handbags could be seen in the window, and no trace of a robbery could be seen from the outside.

The French capital was basking in sunshine on Saturday, with temperatures rising to a summery 23C, AFP reports.

At least some of the capital’s beau monde would have been attending the French Open, one of the tennis world’s most prestigious events, at the city’s Roland Garros stadium.

Among Chopard’s commissions is the Golden Palm awarded at the Cannes festival.

Founded in 1860, the firm has branches in major cities across the world.

Source

The Rest is Up to You…

Michael Porfirio Mason
AKA The Peoples Champ
AKA GFK, Jr.
AKA The Sly, Slick and the Wicked
AKA The Voodoo Child
The Guide to Getting More out of Life
http://www.thegmanifesto.com

Yelle – Je Veux Te Voir

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When in Commodities, Do what China does

» 26 May 2009 » In money » 2 Comments

When in Commodities, Do what China does

Buy The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down by Peter Schiff

Click Here for Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street’s Champion Day Trader

If China is increasing protein in their diets and buying more soybeans, then maybe you should be long soybeans. If China is stockpiling copper to have an ample supply for building an infrastructure, then maybe you should be long copper. If rumors circulate that China is diversifying their reserves from US dollars by buying precious metals, then maybe precious metals should be in your portfolio. China has become a major energy user so there is a logical potential for energies to bid higher for years to come. The moral of the story here is to view what China does as to what the smart money is doing and maybe investors should follow their lead.

To find out exactly how we are positioning our clients in commodity futures and options,
Contact us today at 1-888-920-9997. Don’t forget to tell them The G Manifesto sent you.

Energies

July crude oil advanced $3.85 to trade at 6 month highs. Resistance is seen between 62.25 and 62.50 with support at 60.00 followed by 57.50. July heating oil gained 10.71 cents last week but has been unable to trade above 1.57 after multiple attempts. The last time prices were above those levels was mid-January. On a move thru 1.57 look for an additional 7-10 cents. Support is eyed between 1.50/1.51. Prices could retrace 10-15 cents with no long-term chart damage. The Memorial Day holiday marks the beginning of the summer driving season. July RBOB gained 13.27 cents last week to trade to its highest level in 09’. Resistance is at 1.8150/1.8300, support is seen at 1.75 followed by 1.70. On setbacks we’ll be entertaining 20 cent call spreads in August. OPEC will meet on May 28th and so far, the consensus seems to be that they will not change production levels.

Buy The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down by Peter Schiff

Click Here for Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street’s Champion Day Trader

July natural gas fell 58 cents last week, down 14%. In the first 2 weeks of May prices advanced over $1 and now in the last 2 weeks prices have reversed and we are back to where prices were 4 weeks ago. Support is seen at the contract low at 3.40. Once a low is determined, start scaling into mini futures but until then we have an option play. Sell the $3 or $3.25 August puts while simultaneously buying the September $8 calls. As of Friday’s close, for virtually no debit one could sell 1 August $3.25 put and purchase 8 September $8 calls.

Financials

Stocks: Last week the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ all registered slight gains but we have not changed our view that a 10-15% correction is in the very near future. This week being a shortened trading week and light on volume may be an opportune time for the shorts to begin the move lower. The recent dollar drop signals that investors are willing to put risk back in their portfolio and being that prices have advanced 35% more or less, the Johnny came late investor, may have entered at an interim top. On a setback in the Dow we are looking for a move to 7750 then 7250 and for the S&P 830 then 765. A move above 8500 and 915 respectively would most likely mean that traders have bought themselves more time before we get the unavoidable correction.

Bonds: S&P lowered its outlook for the UK economy, saying that government debt may increase to 100% of GDP in the next few years and lose its AAA credit rating. US Treasury Secretary Geithner tried to ease investors’ concerns, saying that he is committed to bringing down the budget deficit over time so that the US’s high credit rating is preserved but based on market movement, not everyone is a believer. The trend remains down in treasuries as June 30-yr bonds were lower by 3’16.5 points to trade at their lowest level in 09’. Support is seen at 118’10 followed by 117’20, mild resistance comes in at 120’16 followed by more significant at 122’00. June 10-yr notes were lower by 2’08.5 points, also to new 09’ lows. Resistance is seen at 120’10 while support comes in at 118’00. After 12 consecutive positive days March 10’ Euro-dollars finally ran out of gas. Resistance is seen at the contract high at 99.095 while support is seen at the 20 day moving average at 98.81. We suggest your current short position to be 25-40% of the ultimate position you want to own. For every $10k you should be short 3 to 4 contracts; $750K-$1M in leverage.

Continue Reading about Grains

To view our full commentary which includes the sectors of energies, livestock, currencies, financials, grains, softs, and metals, subscribe to our 4 week free trial by visiting this link: http://mbwealth.com/subscribe.html.
_____________________________________________________________________________________Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading MB Wealth recommends that you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if commodity trading is appropriate for you. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. There are no guarantees of market outcome stated, everything stated above are our opinions. Calculations of profit and loss have not factored in commissions and fees.

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Guest Manifesto: Your World Don’t Stop

» 21 May 2009 » In Dope, Game, Girls, money, Style » 7 Comments

Guest Manifesto: Your World Don’t Stop

By: Your Favorite Writer’s Favorite Writer

“Pistol Whip a Priest for his cross piece”

Click Here for Guest Manifesto: I’m from the Place where Hardcore is Beautiful

At any given Cipriani benefit ball, midtown, soho, downtown, I perform like Michael, MPM, Tyson, Jordan, or Jackson. Suited down, pocket squared, no mobb boss but I’ve been performing hits since I stepped on the scene. Long Vol, Short Vol, you can try to understand the Greeks but I bet you are still beta. They say Kanye ‘you keeps it too real boy’.

Like stone crab claws at Lure Fish Bar on Prince Street. I’m dishing at chicks like the point guard on your favorite team. Late night at White Star on Essex on the DL. Like new cash bond issuance in the credit markets, high grade priced 8 Bill, it was all good just a week ago. High Yields on the rise, the bifurcation was so February. I’m trading single B’s off the break like E tabs at a rave. If you’re long credit, watch the DIP or you’ll get crammed down harder than secured lenders in Chrysler by Uncle Sam. Pimp Cadillac population excluded.

Buy The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down by Peter Schiff

Click Here for Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street’s Champion Day Trader

I’ve respected the game since my first dice roll Timberland booted down. Summertime is around the corner. Gucci loafers, no socks, Eric Ripert dinners. Girls at Da Silvano. Bisteca next door. I’m fam at the Waverly. For the futures market non fluent, trade the VXX as hedge. Thank me later. Euro dollar futures. Spooz futures. Treasury futures. Curves steep now. Its cross asset class but same school.

Stocks at 1, you can’t short it that much more. I see your 100 shares front running me. Monaco. Marbella. Mauritius. Go long the Kiwi and AUD when inflation hits and it will. The funeral of CDO. RIP Equity tranche 2006. Synthetic CDO was an infant death. The rebirth of cash. The ailing of CDS. Non-Financial Hybrids pricing in 21% at call but then again capital structure arb wasn’t you. I forgive your weak ass, hustling just ain’t you. I’m still seen at Masa.

Az – Your World Don’t Stop

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