Yesterday Marc Faber first made a guest appearance at the Ira Sohn conference, warning his audience to prepare for war, then promptly shifted to Bloomberg’s offices where he discussed his outlook primarily on China, but also on the US, with Carol Massar, once again warning about war. As usual, he did not mince his words, warning of a “recession”, and predicting that China is simply not growing fast enough in real terms. Nothing new. He did however branch out into the topic of class divergence in both emerging and developed economies: “in front of far too many luxury hotels there are far too many Ferraris, Maseratis, Bentleys… I see a boom everywhere, except for the working class, except for the lower, middle class. But among the well to do people the wealth that is floating around and the prices you pay for high end properties is incredible, and I think that will come to an end, and a lot of people will lose a lot of money… I was in La Jolla, Laguna Beach, Newport Beach, I was in front of a restaurant smoking and I’ve never seen so many Ferraris, Maseratis, Bentleys and fancy cars anywhere in the world, and this is in America. I am not saying this is wrong, but there is an opulence among a small group of people that is huge when there are lots of people that are struggling. This gives me a bad feeling because I’ve seen so many emerging economies when they were booming, that was the time to get out.” As for the US economy, Faber agrees that the only thing that can help is a massive crisis (or “conflagration” as David Stockman calls it) that jars America out of its hypnotic state. And, sure enough, it will come.
Miami Beach is a very intoxicating place; the ocean, mad amounts of fly girls (easily the most highly concentrated of any place in America), high heels, dresses, short skirts, drugs, late nights, succulent Comida Cubana, etc. It can also be a godforsaken cesspool. But one place can’t have it all, right?
However, as we have mentioned before, South Beach has been many a player’s “Waterloo”. Top ranked players from NYC end up looking like dorks on the beach because they rock wack beach gear. And as a result, they end up filleted. Top tier California playboys get put through the wood chipper since they are not used to the late nights, late dinning hours, rhythms of the night, and smoking in bars in South Beach (they can thank the Gov and the Police State California has become for that). Even top foreign G’s get battered and bruised.
Lucky for you, the reader, your humble author has one of the greatest track records of all time in South Beach.
Here are some of the biggest mistakes I see guys constantly making in South Beach:
1. Not wearing Custom Suits – South Beach is definitely Custom Suit turf. Amazingly, not that many cats bust them. Which in turn makes it more effective. If you dress in tight jeans or glittery Ed Hardy shirts, expect to get blanked in South Beach. However, on the plus side, you should find plenty in common with about 99% of the guys in America. So you will never be at a loss for friends to go out to the local sports bar and eat “Mondo Nachos” and “Jalapeño Poppers” with.
2. Not Street Gaming – Street Game is the Hanging Gardens of Babylon for swooping in South Beach.
3. Going into clubs “Cold” – Here is the thing with South Beach: the nightclubs are pretty difficult to swoop girls at. You need to have girls cooking before you roll to the club and use the club as a closing tool. If you understand this, you understand South Beach.
4. Not rolling to the restaurants – Sure, most South Beach restaurants are overpriced and the food is kind of wack. And it’s hard to get some decent sushi. But the restaurant bars in Miami are literally, Bolivian gold mines for swooping (and we all know where the price of Gold is today). Roll in Custom Suited Down and slide up to the Colombiana and Cubana in high heels and short skirts at the bar. Proceed accordingly.
(Side Note: I have thought for years that if someone opened up a legit traditional Sushi place in South Beach you would print money. Key words here being “legit traditional”. As a matter of fact, maybe I will talk to some of my Sushi guys when I get back to California.)
5. Not going after locals only tourists – Sure the tourists are easier to swoop on a one night basis, but the local Miami girls way more fly. Check out Brickell; and prepared to have your mind blown.
6. Not smoking – Choosing not to smoke is a horrible move in South Beach. By being a smoker, you get mad free leads. Plus, the health benefits from swooping tons of fly Latinas will easily counter act the “potential” risks from the inhalation of tobacco smoke.
7. Not having Swagger – We have talked about Swagger in South Beach before. If you come light in South Beach, prepare to get nothing. If you come heavy, the blimp reads “The World is Yours”. It’s really that simple.
9. Not speaking Spanish – You are going to need to speak at least little Spanish and hold a conversation in Spanish if you really want to come up Aces in South Beach. Other languages help as well. I would say I typically speak about 40% English – 60% Spanish (and other languages) when I am in Miami.
10. Not Dancing – You are going to have to dance if you want to close in South Beach. Here is the Salsa Swoop Move.
11. Being undercapitalized – Sure, you might be able to swoop girls in South Beach if your Game is super tight and your broke. But why make it hard on yourself? South Beach girls love that Young, Handsome, Dashing, Rich, International Playboy in the Custom Suit with the big Bankroll. Why do it any other way? Anything less would be uncivilized.
The other advantage is you can really be a “bully with the bucks” in South Beach. So you really might as well hit hard like Camacho and Vargas and peg the market.
Kentucky Derby Picks and Manny Pacquiao VS Sugar Shane Mosley
Undisclosed Location, South America –
First off, if you want to win at The Kentucky Derby, make sure you read The G Manifesto’s Classic: How to Win at The Kentucky Derby.
Second, I usually have a lot of input in years past for the Cinco De Mayo weekend’s boxing festivities/Kentucky Derby Weekend. (Check the archives for a near flawless track record on boxing picks/racing picks in years past). This year I haven’t really focused too much. Manny Pacquiao VS Sugar Shane Mosley doesn’t really capture my attention, neither does this years field for The Kentucky Derby.
In fact, I won’t be showing up at either event. Which is really a shame since I just picked up the sickest Custom Suit from my tailor.
(Side Note: as we all know, this weekend marks the start of summer on The G Manifesto Calendar.)
Anyways, that all being said, I am going to defer to Andy Beyer (a gentleman that I have been fortunate to have a table next to at The Turf Club of The Del Mar Racetrack in the past) on the Derby:
At the start of the year, people involved in Thoroughbred racing were speculating whether Uncle Mo would win the Kentucky Derby and go on to sweep the Triple Crown series. Three weeks ago they were asking if he would be fit and healthy enough to perform well in the Derby. This week they were wondering if he would even get to the starting gate. On Friday morning they got the disappointing answer: The colt is scratched from Saturday’s race.
In a way, the decision by trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole shouldn’t affect bettors’ analysis of the Derby. There were so many negative signs surrounding Uncle Mo that many handicappers were prepared to throw him out – even though he was, on his best form the oustanding horse in the field.
After his championship season as a 2-year-old, Uncle Mo’s 3-year-old campaign has gone awry from the start. He won a trumped-up race at Gulfstream Park that was little more than a glorified workout and then suffered a shocking loss against a terrible field in the Wood Memorial Stakes. A few days later Pletcher issued a press release saying that Uncle Mo was found to be suffering from a gastrointestinal infection – the excuse for the defeat.
Some skeptics weren’t fully satisfied with this explanation because owners and trainers rarely tell the whole truth about horses’ physical problems. Questions about Uncle Mo multiplied since he arrived at Churchill Downs. His two workouts were undefinitive. His camp kept hedging about whether he would run. Repole announced that he, Pletcher, and three veterinarians would confer Thursday evening to decide the colt’s status – hardly a sign of confidence two days before the Derby.
With Uncle Mo out of the lineup, Florida Derby winner Dialed In solidifed his status as the favorite. Many fans have watched his exciting last-to-first rallies and concluded that Nick Zito’s colt is a natural Derby horse.
Yes, Dialed In was impressive charging from far behind to win the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream in January. But in his two subsequent starts at 1 1/8 miles, he lost an allowance race and then struggled to win the Florida Derby. The race – filled with speed horses, run with fast early fractions – was a perfect set-up for him, yet Dialed In barely got past the 68-1 pacesetter, Shackleford, to prevail in slow time. Eleven horses in the Kentucky Derby field have earned higher Beyer Speed Figures in 1 1/8-mile races than Dialed In did in either of his starts at the distance. I believe that Dialed In’s best game is rallying at shorter distances and that he will even less effective at 1 1/4 miles. Throw him out.
None of the Derby entrants (except for Uncle Mo) has yet run a race good enough to stamp himself clearly as a potential Derby winner. Their speed figures are all sub-par. Under these circumstances, it makes sense to look for a colt whose form is on the upgrade and is likely to improve further on Saturday. Based on this standard, these are my top three:
As far as Manny Pacquiao VS Sugar Shane Mosley, look for Pacman to stop Mosley in the fight that no one wants to see (I will watch it however, or at least I think I will). It might go the distance if Paxquiao takes his foot off the gas out of respect.
It will be good to watch Kelly Pavlik’s comeback though.
The Rest is Up to You…
Michael Porfirio Mason
AKA The Peoples Champ
AKA GFK, Jr.
AKA The Sly, Slick and the Wicked
AKA The Voodoo Child
The Guide to Getting More out of Life
A lot of action in the Cocoa Market so far this year. Many people have been asking me how to play it. If you don’t want to trade futures or options, you can always trade NIB iPath Dow Jones-UBS Cocoa Subindex Total Return ETN.
Battle Pits Cocoa Speculators against Chocolate Makers
On the morning of July 15, 2010, Nauck realized he was being attacked.
It was 8:30 a.m. on a cloudless, beautiful day. Nauck was sitting at his desk made of polished Oregon pine on the fifth floor of an old factory building with a view of the church spires in Bremen’s market square. Nauck was going through his mail. The quarterly figures were looking good, the company had just hired 62 temporary employees and the economy was picking up steam. As he was going through his morning routine of checking prices and stocks online and glancing at a few websites, Nauck saw something that startled him.
The price of cocoa was dramatically high. In just two days, it had risen by 132 British pounds (€148, or $220), and it was still rising. During the course of that trading day, the cocoa price in London would climb to £2,732 per metric ton, a 33-year high. It made Nauck fear for his livelihood, his workers and his factory — in short, for everything he was about.
Nauck is the majority shareholder and managing director of Hachez, one of Germany’s 90 chocolate makers. The company was founded in Bremen in 1890 by Joseph Emile Hachez, and Nauck’s grandfather was already a co-owner in the 1920s. In 1990, when the company was in trouble, Nauck took out millions in loans and bought shares in Hachez. As the company’s new managing director, he updated its product line to suit modern tastes.
‘Choc Finger’
Anthony Ward, the man behind the attack on Nauck, is sitting in an office in London. The fund manager and trader has been given the nickname “Choc Finger,” a play on the James Bond villain Goldfinger. In the industry, though, it is meant as a term of admiration.
Anyone who understands the basic rules of Ward’s game, commodity speculation, can also understand why the global economy is plunging from one crisis to the next.
Ward doesn’t like journalists, and he hardly ever grants interviews. Instead, he employs two public relations agencies, whose publicists can say a lot without saying anything.
A broad-shouldered man in his early 50s, Ward grew up in an upper-class family with a long line of merchants. His grandfather reportedly supplied the British Navy with rum. His office is in a black-painted townhouse in Mayfair, London’s most exclusive neighborhood.
“When it comes to money,” says a man who worked with Ward for years, “he focuses on this goal alone.”
Cornering the Cocoa Market
Ward had long spoken of his ambition to corner the world cocoa market, and he had already attempted to do it twice before, in 1996 and 2002. He embarked on his third attempt on July 15, 2010.
Ward’s plan could work because the global economy has become more and more complex. The price of cocoa has been rising — seemingly unstoppably — for the last five years. But this is only part of the global boom in commodities. Over the last year, the price of wheat has risen by $4.83 per bushel, to $9.03. In the same period, the price of a metric ton of corn has gone up from $3.46 to more than $7.00.
Commodities speculation fuels inflation in India, drives up the price of tortillas in Mexico, causes famines and fuels political unrest. Speculators act as accelerants — and the smaller the market, the easier their game.
Cocoa makes up one of the world’s smallest commodities markets. Indeed, the annual harvest amounts to only 3.5 million tons, with more than half coming from Ivory Coast and its eastern neighbor, Ghana. The average price per metric ton is £2,000, meaning that it takes only £7 billion to buy a year’s harvest.
The cocoa market’s simplicity makes it particularly vulnerable to speculative attacks and attractive for the billions of roving dollars and euros. Depending on the estimate, speculation in the commodities markets alone entails somewhere between $400 billion and $800 billion. Ten years ago, it was only about $5 billion.
Experts say the money comes from three sources: from private wealth investors or, in other words, the world’s super-rich; from banks trading for their own accounts and at their own risk; and, finally, from pension funds in the West investing the retirement savings of millions.
The cocoa business is actually very straightforward. During the harvest, traders buy cocoa beans directly from farmers in places like Ghana and Ivory Coast and, later, they resell them to chocolate makers in Europe. Since traders can’t know when manufacturers will buy their cocoa, there is an exchange, where traders and others can buy and sell goods at any time. Still, the downside for traders is that the price that the exchange offers is generally lower than the price that chocolate companies pay.
To make cocoa scarce, Ward had to manipulate how the cocoa business works. He had to lure traders away from the chocolate factories and convince them to sell their cocoa on the exchange, instead, because it was only there that he could buy large quantities of cocoa in an ambush-like maneuver.
Chocolates may not come easy on the pocket as cocoa prices surge ahead in the domestic market due to global supply constraints.
India imports more than half of its requirement of cocoa every year with demand increasing at a rate of 8% per annum. “With supply from Ivory Coast disrupted due to political problems, availability is low in most of the markets,” traders said.
Indian cocoa prices are now at a premium of more than 12-15% compared to the global markets. Dry beans at the farm gate are above R175 per kg while wet beans are selling at around R55 per kg in Kerala. “There is a scramble for cocoa and the supply is tight. Farmers are getting good returns for their crop,” Shiny George of Indian Organic Farmers Company.
Ivory Coast produces nearly 40% of the world’s raw cocoa, valued at about $3.8 billion. Interestingly, the wholesale price of cocoa has been surging ahead and doubled in the previous four years as global demand increased, particularly in India and China.
No one is taking the cacao or cocoa plant for granted these days. Chocoholics and chocolate manufacturers everywhere are anxious about the political turmoil in the Ivory Coast, the West African nation that produces nearly 40 percent of the world’s raw cocoa, valued at about $3.8 billion.
“Cocoa prices should come down by another $100, but not more, as there is a logistics nightmare waiting for the supply chain on the ground — banking, storage, trucking, workers, cash. No one will return until the guns are silenced.” – Luis Rangel, ICAP Futures
Alassane Quattara, the winner of the Ivory Coast’s November presidential election, suspended all cocoa and coffee exports for 30 days to cut off funds to incumbent President Laurent Gbago, who refused to leave office after a run-off election and who threatened to take over the purchase and export of cocoa.
While 68 companies are licensed to export cocoa from the Ivory Coast this season, the market is dominated by major international firms, such as Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland and Barry Callebaut AG. Among them, they bought 630,371 tons of cocoa during the 2009-10 season, more than half of the tonnage registered.
Cargill Inc.’s Ivory Coast unit honored the ban and suspended purchases. ADM told Dow Jones it was evaluating the situation, as did Barry Callebaut, adding it had sufficient cocoa stocks to cover its processing needs.
Even before the ban, the wholesale price of cocoa doubled in the previous four years as global demand increased, particularly in Asia. Uncertainty of supplies — and British commodity trader Anthony Ward’s attempt at cornering the cocoa market last year — led to cocoa powder prices holding at historical highs in 2010, and it appears volatility will continue to put pressure on prices.
