The G Manifesto

Seasonal Impacts of Hurricanes on U.S. Commodity Markets

July 30, 2009
By: Jordanna Sheermohamed, M.S. Meteorology
Weather and Climate Consultant for MB Wealth Corp.

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To find out exactly how we are positioning our clients in commodity futures and options, Contact us today at 1-888-920-9997. Don’t forget to tell them The G Manifesto sent you.

How weather affects daily lives is something that has fascinated individuals from various facets of our society for hundreds of years. From the clothes we wear on a daily basis to major preparations made on behalf of the global agricultural industries, weather, and more specifically climatic impacting factors, are nothing to be ignored.

This cannot be stressed enough when referencing the global hurricane seasons which tend to wreak havoc on agriculture areas worldwide on an annual basis. The safety of our populations and industries rely on the joint efforts of leading nations worldwide to share both information and knowledge of past and current climate and weather data. The U.S. Department of Commerce houses several facilities under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which produce and provide daily, monthly, and seasonal outlook forecasts of temperature and precipitation, just to name a few.

Although not limited to, several factors to weigh when considering the weather and/or climate in a given region would include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the current state of the Southern Oscillation (SO), and of course the annual ominous hurricane season.

The PDO is a decadal variability in climate that occurs roughly every 20-30 years. Affects of the PDO span the entire Pacific Ocean altering both wind patterns and sea surface temperatures. Although PDO forecasts have only gained notoriety as late as 1994, the current phase indicates negative anomalies or a “cold phase”, which exhibits warmer water temperatures in the Northern, Western, and Southern regions of the Pacific ocean, and cooler temperatures in the Eastern and Central Pacific ocean. Although the PDO can be considered a “large-scale” indicator of sea surface temperatures and wind patterns, modest time scales play just as an important role in global climate forecasting.

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While seasonal trends may potentially impact supply and demand in certain commodities, seasonal aspects of supply and demand have been factored into futures & options market pricing.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading MB Wealth recommends that you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if commodity trading is appropriate for you. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. There are no guarantees of market outcome stated, everything stated above are our opinions. Calculations of profit and loss have not factored in commissions and fees.

Increasing Your Bankroll Online: A Guide for the Modern G (Guest Manifesto)

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Whether you want your site to be the world’s homepage like Google, Facebook, etc.; run a less popular website and sell high cost products with a large profit margin; create many smaller websites that generate a total profit larger than the biggest sites; or any combination of these, you have many options for your bankroll to blow up like Lindsay Lohan’s mind on powder.

As you can see online business is very similar to offline business, but there are a few key things that separate the two. One of them is the tremendous potential for movers & shakers. Sites can go from nothing to the top of the internet overnight as with Microsoft’s Bing, which shot like a Beretta from zilch to the 10th most popular site online in little over a week according to Alexa.com. With social sites like Digg and Twitter as well as blogs, forums, or news sites, it is very possible that if you come up with a revolutionizing idea for a site that it can climb the ranks of the internet to the top in a matter of months. Like Twitter itself did, which brings me to my next point.

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At least once per year there is a new site that revolutionizes the internet. YouTube, Facebook, RapidShare, and Twitter are all recent examples. If you happen to notice a rapid upward growth of a site before it reaches anywhere near the top sites on the internet, you will have a chance to capitalize on its innovation by putting a twist on its idea and publishing your own site. All the excitement of a heist, but yet legal if it’s only the idea you’ve stolen. After that, 99% of the time it is not worth it to try to make a site just like it because there is too much competition and there is no reason for anyone to use a site that accomplished the same function when it is miles behind the original. When FaceBook became popular it seemed like every webmaster wanted to be Mark Zuckerberg and create their own social site as if FaceBook was the limit of innovation. But then guess what? Twitter came out. The point is there is always another idea just waiting to burst to the top of the internet. Your objective should be to find it when it is on the brink of bursting in popularity and put a twist on it.

This is where my concept of juicy content, not to be confused with juicy couture, comes in. Whatever it is that your site does to make it unique from the crowd of 9 billion other sites, whether it’s providing a service or selling Audemars Piguet watches, Beluga caviar, custom suits, Davidoff cigars, or Enzo Ferraris, emphasize it and make it easily accessible. If there is nothing unique about your site, no juicy content, your site will be going down down baby Nelly-style.

In building the site you are going to want to add all that Web 2.0 jazz that everyone talks about these days, however, don’t overdo it. Too much JavaScript and Ajax can not only be annoying, but can cause the site not to function properly on certain browsers. While we’re talking programming languages here I’ll also mention that my favorite web language is PHP, the other alternative is Microsoft’s ASP. Running a site on a Linux box with PHP and MySQL should be sufficient for almost any site – it’s what Wikipedia uses.

Now if you would prefer someone write the site for you, you can outsource a freelance coder from a site like GetACoder.com to make it exactly the way you want it or buy an already made site from SitePoint.com. Make sure they know how to SEO (search engine optimization) the site because you may get around half your traffic from search engines, mainly Google. Whether or not you are programming the site yourself, you may still want to buy a template from TemplateMonster.com depending on what type of site you’re making unless you’re the Banksy of Photoshop. Whatever you do, do not use any standardized content management system, ie. PHPNuke, or anything that was not written specifically for your site unless it is an additional feature of the site. There are some exceptions for sites that are only blogs, forums, wikis, etc.

After you get your site established, you are most likely going to want some advertisers if it is more of an entertainment site. If it is a company website that sells a specific product or service like a bank, you obviously don’t want to divert your traffic. TribalFusion, Adsense, Burst Media, GorillaNation, and Casale are top tier advertising agencies that will help you monetize your inventory. My advice is to stray away from popups, cpv ads, or anything that is too intruding. Your visitors will stop coming back with these kinds of ads and building a loyal customer base is absolutely vital to your success.

I’m going to end this Manifesto with a tip on one of best things you can do to DOUBLE your income on a site. It is to offer some type of membership with recurring billing. This can easily be handled through PayPal. 99% of the time people will forget to cancel it and leave it going for at least 6 months — maybe even years if you are lucky. I don’t think I have to further explain what this can do for your business…

Cheers and best of luck to your online success!

–MSG

AKA Neo
AKA The Internet Dominator
AKA The Message

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Michael Lewis: Goldman Sachs Rumors

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Rumor No. 1: “Goldman Sachs controls the U.S. government.”

Every time we hear the phrase “the United States of Goldman Sachs” we shake our heads in wonder. Every ninth-grader knows that the U.S. government consists of three branches. Goldman owns just one of these outright; the second we simply rent, and the third we have no interest in at all. (Note there isn’t a single former Goldman employee on the Supreme Court.)

Rumor No. 2: “When the U.S. government bailed out AIG, and paid off its gambling debts, it saved not AIG but Goldman Sachs.”

The charge isn’t merely insulting but ignorant. Less responsible journalists continue to bring up the $12.9 billion we received from AIG, as if that was some kind of big deal to us. But as our CFO David Viniar explained back in March, we were hedged. Our profits from AIG “rounded to zero.”

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Rumor No. 3: “As the U.S. government will eat the losses if Goldman Sachs goes bust, Goldman Sachs shouldn’t be allowed to keep making these massive financial bets. At the very least the $11.4 billion Goldman Sachs already has set aside for employees in 2009 — $386,429 a head, just for the first six months — is unfair, as the U.S. taxpayer has borne so much of the risk of the wagers that generated the profits.”

Really, we don’t know where to begin with this one. It is wrong-headed in so many different ways!

Let’s begin with the idea that the taxpayer is running a bigger risk than we are. The billions he stands to lose are trivial; after all, they round to zero.

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The Rest is Up to You…

Michael Porfirio Mason
AKA The Peoples Champ
AKA GFK, Jr.
AKA The Sly, Slick and the Wicked
AKA The Voodoo Child
The Guide to Getting More out of Life
http://www.thegmanifesto.com

Jadakiss – Freestyle(NaS it aint hard to tell)

Summer Heists

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As Spain’s Economy Falters, Bank Robberies Rise

“In recent months, it has become apparent that Spain is suffering from an increase in bank robberies,” said Francisco Pérez Abellán, head of the criminology department at the University of Camilo José Cela in Madrid. “We are seeing people committing offenses through necessity, first-time offenders who can no longer continue to maintain their lifestyle and so turn to crime.” Continue

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3 CROOKS SWIPE $120G IN BLING FROM GRAND CENTRAL

Three clever crooks used the classic switcherooo to swipe a black duffel bag loaded with $120,000 of gold, diamonds and cash from a Grand Central Terminal jeweler, officials said today.

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Two employees from My Oro USA Inc. were carrying the 800 pieces of jewelry in a black duffel bag last month when the employee carrying the bag briefly put it down to throw away some garbage, MTA Police said. Continue

First Blood Diamonds, Now Blood Computers?

When the film Blood Diamond came out in 2006, people were startled at the alleged origins of the precious stones from areas of bloody conflict and began asking whether the jewels on their fingers cost a human life. Will consumers soon find themselves asking similar questions about their cell phones and computers?

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In a report released earlier this week, Global Witness claims that multinational companies are furthering a trade in minerals at the heart of the hi-tech industry that feeds the horrendous civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). (Global Witness is the same nongovernmental organization that helped expose the violence that plagues many of the sources of diamonds.) However, the accused companies, with varying degrees of hostility, deny any culpability, saying Global Witness oversimplifies a complex economic process in a chaotic geopolitial setting. Continue

Teen arrested in brazen Philadelphia jewelry heist

Police have arrested a teenager for allegedly taking part in a brazen $220,000 watch heist at an upscale Philadelphia department store.

Police say officers arrested a 19-year-old on Wednesday night and charged him with robbery, criminal conspiracy and other charges. Investigators say Williams was one of four men who stormed into the Boyd’s department store in downtown Philadelphia on June 4 and made off with $220,000 worth of high-end watches. Continue

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Thanks to Michael and Entropy.

The Rest is Up to You…

Michael Porfirio Mason
AKA The Peoples Champ
AKA GFK, Jr.
AKA The Sly, Slick and the Wicked
AKA The Voodoo Child
The Guide to Getting More out of Life
http://www.thegmanifesto.com

AZ – Can’t Stop

Commodities: For all Scenarios

Weekly Commentary
For July 27th– July 31st 2009
By: Matthew Bradbard
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When I started working in commodities, almost a decade ago, they were considered a dirty word and certainly not a place for the average Joe to invest. Within the last few years, thanks to investors becoming more open minded, the overall performance of commodities and other asset classes, commodity futures and options are quickly becoming a respectable asset class. Case in point, over the weekend while reading the WSJ there were 3 different scenarios and portfolio allocation suggestions, regardless of the scenario all 3 had a place for commodities. One that fears inflation should have as much as 25% allocated to commodities, one fearing deflation only a 10% allocation, with the middle of the road being 15%. While we agree with the percentages we suggest investors get more informed on trading futures and options not just commodity ETF’s.

To find out exactly how we are positioning our clients in commodity futures and options, Contact us today at 1-888-920-9997. Don’t forget to tell them The G Manifesto sent you.

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Energies
The DOE reported that crude oil supplies were down 1.8 million barrels, supplies of gasoline were up 800,000 barrels while heating oil supplies were also up 800,000 barrels. September crude oil ended higher by $3.68, the highest close since 7/2. The pivot point currently stands at the 50 day moving average of $67. $68.50/69.00 should act as resistance with support at $65.00. The easy money has been made on longs being that in the last 10 sessions prices have gained 11%. September heating oil was higher by 13.93 cents last week. Support comes in at 1.78 followed by 1.75 with resistance seen at 1.86/1.87. On a further rise in crude we could see 1.90, if long trail stops. September RBOB gained 14.30 cents last week though prices are starting to look toppish. We’re not advising getting short but we could see a setback, follow crude’s lead. Support is seen between 1.83 and 1.8450 with resistance at 1.9250.

The DOE reported that natural gas supplies were up 66 billion cubic feet last week to 2.952 trillion cubic feet. September natural gas closed up 4 cents last week with a trading range of almost 40 cents. A potential double top formed last week at $4.05 as prices failed to get through the 50 day moving average after 2 attempts. That level should serve as resistance at $4.03 with support at $3.65. We are still advising clients $1 call spreads, on multiple positions split the purchase between October and November.

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Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading MB Wealth recommends that you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if commodity trading is appropriate for you. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. There are no guarantees of market outcome stated, everything stated above are our opinions.