The G Manifesto

Kentucky Derby Picks and Manny Pacquiao VS Sugar Shane Mosley

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First off, if you want to win at The Kentucky Derby, make sure you read The G Manifesto’s Classic: How to Win at The Kentucky Derby.

Second, I usually have a lot of input in years past for the Cinco De Mayo weekend’s boxing festivities/Kentucky Derby Weekend. (Check the archives for a near flawless track record on boxing picks/racing picks in years past). This year I haven’t really focused too much. Manny Pacquiao VS Sugar Shane Mosley doesn’t really capture my attention, neither does this years field for The Kentucky Derby.

In fact, I won’t be showing up at either event. Which is really a shame since I just picked up the sickest Custom Suit from my tailor.

(Side Note: as we all know, this weekend marks the start of summer on The G Manifesto Calendar.)

Anyways, that all being said, I am going to defer to Andy Beyer (a gentleman that I have been fortunate to have a table next to at The Turf Club of The Del Mar Racetrack in the past) on the Derby:

At the start of the year, people involved in Thoroughbred racing were speculating whether Uncle Mo would win the Kentucky Derby and go on to sweep the Triple Crown series. Three weeks ago they were asking if he would be fit and healthy enough to perform well in the Derby. This week they were wondering if he would even get to the starting gate. On Friday morning they got the disappointing answer: The colt is scratched from Saturday’s race.

In a way, the decision by trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole shouldn’t affect bettors’ analysis of the Derby. There were so many negative signs surrounding Uncle Mo that many handicappers were prepared to throw him out – even though he was, on his best form the oustanding horse in the field.

After his championship season as a 2-year-old, Uncle Mo’s 3-year-old campaign has gone awry from the start. He won a trumped-up race at Gulfstream Park that was little more than a glorified workout and then suffered a shocking loss against a terrible field in the Wood Memorial Stakes. A few days later Pletcher issued a press release saying that Uncle Mo was found to be suffering from a gastrointestinal infection – the excuse for the defeat.

Some skeptics weren’t fully satisfied with this explanation because owners and trainers rarely tell the whole truth about horses’ physical problems. Questions about Uncle Mo multiplied since he arrived at Churchill Downs. His two workouts were undefinitive. His camp kept hedging about whether he would run. Repole announced that he, Pletcher, and three veterinarians would confer Thursday evening to decide the colt’s status – hardly a sign of confidence two days before the Derby.

With Uncle Mo out of the lineup, Florida Derby winner Dialed In solidifed his status as the favorite. Many fans have watched his exciting last-to-first rallies and concluded that Nick Zito’s colt is a natural Derby horse.

Yes, Dialed In was impressive charging from far behind to win the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream in January. But in his two subsequent starts at 1 1/8 miles, he lost an allowance race and then struggled to win the Florida Derby. The race – filled with speed horses, run with fast early fractions – was a perfect set-up for him, yet Dialed In barely got past the 68-1 pacesetter, Shackleford, to prevail in slow time. Eleven horses in the Kentucky Derby field have earned higher Beyer Speed Figures in 1 1/8-mile races than Dialed In did in either of his starts at the distance. I believe that Dialed In’s best game is rallying at shorter distances and that he will even less effective at 1 1/4 miles. Throw him out.

None of the Derby entrants (except for Uncle Mo) has yet run a race good enough to stamp himself clearly as a potential Derby winner. Their speed figures are all sub-par. Under these circumstances, it makes sense to look for a colt whose form is on the upgrade and is likely to improve further on Saturday. Based on this standard, these are my top three:

1. Shackleford
2. Archarcharch
3. Nehro

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As far as Manny Pacquiao VS Sugar Shane Mosley, look for Pacman to stop Mosley in the fight that no one wants to see (I will watch it however, or at least I think I will). It might go the distance if Paxquiao takes his foot off the gas out of respect.

It will be good to watch Kelly Pavlik’s comeback though.

The Rest is Up to You…

Michael Porfirio Mason
AKA The Peoples Champ
AKA GFK, Jr.
AKA The Sly, Slick and the Wicked
AKA The Voodoo Child
The Guide to Getting More out of Life

http://www.thegmanifesto.com

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Floyd “Money” Mayweather VS Sugar Shane Mosley Prediction

Manny Pacquiao Autographed / Signed Rare Grant Glove

FLOYD MAYWEATHER JR & MANNY PACQUIAO signed BOXING Glove

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Here are some thoughts on the Floyd “Money” Mayweather VS Sugar Shane Mosley fight:

Power
Obviously, Sugar Shane Mosley has a significant edge in this department. However, Money Mayweather’s power is seriously underrated. Doubt Mayweather’s power? Watch the toughest boxer in recent memory, Arturo Gatti, wince in pain from Mayweather’s body shots. Speed plus precision equals damage.

Speed
“Life is about timing and inches,” Mayweather said. “Boxing is about timing and inches. I’m able to time a guy pretty well.”

Both Mosley and Mayweather are fast like Eddie Felson. Something tells me that Mayweather will make Mosley look a little slow on May 1st, and answer the question, “Will Shane Mosley be rusty after a 15 month layoff?” As far as the other big question out there, “How will Mayweather deal with Sugar Shane’s speed?” The answer is “timing”. Like my Grandfather, Michael James Mason V (an excellent boxer in his day, fought at Madison Square Garden) always said, “Good timing beats speed, power and size”.

Last Fight
Mayweather dominated the #3 pound for pound fighter in the world Juan Manuel Marquez.

Mosley destroyed Antonio Margarito.

Both fights were impressive wins. Keep in mind however, that Margarito was mentally screwed up after having his loaded handwraps discovered and was basically a punching bag for Shane.

Style
I think Mayweather has a huge edge here. Mosley tends to throw his punches a little wide whereas Mayweather throws them more straight. This could be a big advantage for Mayweather. Mosley also tries to “shake and bake” with his punches too much. Mayweather is more fluid. Mosley also has the tendency to get a little wild and lose focus. Mentally, Mayweather has the edge. Not to mention he has dominated the pre-fight Mental Warfare.

Killer Instinct
Mosley gets the edge here, although Mayweather is no slouch. If Sugar Shane can really hurt Mayweather, he can close the show.

The Jab
People always yap about how when Oscar De La Hoya used the jab, Mayweather was in trouble. Watch the fight again. The fight with Oscar wasn’t that close. It is hard to jab Mayweather when you get countered over top of it with straight rights. Also, Mosley’s jab has never been one of his strong suits. Furthermore on Mayweather’s De La Hoya win: He beat The Golden Boy at 154lbs unlike Pac-Man’s win a year and a half later at a draining, straining, 145lbs. Significant difference.

In fact, Mayweather’s jab to the body will be one of the most important punches in this fight. Watch for it. It is very subtle.

The Crowd
“Boxing is like jazz. The better it is, the less people appreciate it.” – George Foreman

The crowd with be overwhelmingly pro-Mosley. It won’t be so Platinum Digger heavy, like when Oscar fought Mayweather, but it will still be rabidly for Sugar Shane. Mayweather is such an artist that the crowd misses many of the clean punches he lands. The crowd will also no doubt cheer fanatically for every glancing and blocked combo Sugar Shane throws. This does sway judges. Also, Las Vegas, historically speaking has been pro-West Coast fighters.

The Fight
Mosley really has a hard time winning this one. If he boxes Mayweather, he will lose for sure. If he attacks and tries to rough up Mayweather, then that also plays into Mayweather’s hands.

Expect Shane to start fast and try to bully Mayweather, as he should. By round 3, Mayweather will start to discourage Shane with defense and pin-point counters.

Through the middle rounds, Mayweather will be able to pot shot Mosley with straight right leads and left hooks. With Mayweather’s back to the ropes, Shane will have some moments, but Mayweather’s underrated infighting, chin and pushing off on Shane’s eyeball with his elbow, will give as good as he gets.

The pivotal point in the fight will happen around the 8th round when Shane gets his second wind and tries to change the fight. If he can land a looping punch, which Mayweather can get touched by (see his fight with Demarcus “Chop Chop” Corley), the fight could change. But even then, I think Floyd’s defense and chin will hold up.

Rounds 10 thru 12, Mayweather will keep landing crisp shots, and possibly cut Shane and chop him up like Mark “Chopper” Read.

Look for a close decision for Mayweather on the cards and a wider margin in reality. 8 rounds to 4 for Mayweather, with a slight chance of a late round stoppage.

Mosley’s real chances are like I said before, landing a big looping punch that changes the fight or a fishy crowd influenced Las Vegas decision.

Smart money on Money Mayweather. Hell, if you are like me and have bet on Floyd every fight he has ever fought (except the Diego Corrales fight), you will end up in the black no matter what the outcome is.

Manny Pacquiao Autographed / Signed Rare Grant Glove

Click Here to Download The G Manifesto’s Free Gentleman’s Club Report (pdf)

FLOYD MAYWEATHER JR & MANNY PACQUIAO signed BOXING Glove

Update:

Floyd Mayweather Sr putting to rest the “Mayweather has been Ducking Shane” talk:

“Shane Mosley is thirty-eight and he’s coming to fight Floyd too late. You know, he’s coming to fight Floyd too late. If he had a chance, maybe he should have done it a few years ago. Floyd challenged Shane Mosley when Shane Mosley was at his best pound for pound fighter at that time at 135 pounds. Floyd challenged him when little Floyd had just won the championship at 130, the junior lightweight champion. Shane was the lightweight champion but Floyd was the junior lightweight champion and we challenged Shane, and they denied us and they did not take the challenge. They did not take the challenge. Now, he’s fighting because it’s a must—have to fight, got to fight, need to fight. That’s why he’s fighting us now. He has to, he must.”

Listen here.

The Rest is Up to You…

Michael Porfirio Mason
AKA The Peoples Champ
AKA GFK, Jr.
AKA The Sly, Slick and the Wicked
AKA The Voodoo Child
The Guide to Getting More out of Life
http://www.thegmanifesto.com

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