Kentucky Derby Picks and Manny Pacquiao VS Sugar Shane Mosley
Kentucky Derby Picks and Manny Pacquiao VS Sugar Shane Mosley
Undisclosed Location, South America –
First off, if you want to win at The Kentucky Derby, make sure you read The G Manifesto’s Classic: How to Win at The Kentucky Derby.
Second, I usually have a lot of input in years past for the Cinco De Mayo weekend’s boxing festivities/Kentucky Derby Weekend. (Check the archives for a near flawless track record on boxing picks/racing picks in years past). This year I haven’t really focused too much. Manny Pacquiao VS Sugar Shane Mosley doesn’t really capture my attention, neither does this years field for The Kentucky Derby.
In fact, I won’t be showing up at either event. Which is really a shame since I just picked up the sickest Custom Suit from my tailor.
(Side Note: as we all know, this weekend marks the start of summer on The G Manifesto Calendar.)
Anyways, that all being said, I am going to defer to Andy Beyer (a gentleman that I have been fortunate to have a table next to at The Turf Club of The Del Mar Racetrack in the past) on the Derby:
At the start of the year, people involved in Thoroughbred racing were speculating whether Uncle Mo would win the Kentucky Derby and go on to sweep the Triple Crown series. Three weeks ago they were asking if he would be fit and healthy enough to perform well in the Derby. This week they were wondering if he would even get to the starting gate. On Friday morning they got the disappointing answer: The colt is scratched from Saturday’s race.
In a way, the decision by trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole shouldn’t affect bettors’ analysis of the Derby. There were so many negative signs surrounding Uncle Mo that many handicappers were prepared to throw him out – even though he was, on his best form the oustanding horse in the field.
After his championship season as a 2-year-old, Uncle Mo’s 3-year-old campaign has gone awry from the start. He won a trumped-up race at Gulfstream Park that was little more than a glorified workout and then suffered a shocking loss against a terrible field in the Wood Memorial Stakes. A few days later Pletcher issued a press release saying that Uncle Mo was found to be suffering from a gastrointestinal infection – the excuse for the defeat.
Some skeptics weren’t fully satisfied with this explanation because owners and trainers rarely tell the whole truth about horses’ physical problems. Questions about Uncle Mo multiplied since he arrived at Churchill Downs. His two workouts were undefinitive. His camp kept hedging about whether he would run. Repole announced that he, Pletcher, and three veterinarians would confer Thursday evening to decide the colt’s status – hardly a sign of confidence two days before the Derby.
With Uncle Mo out of the lineup, Florida Derby winner Dialed In solidifed his status as the favorite. Many fans have watched his exciting last-to-first rallies and concluded that Nick Zito’s colt is a natural Derby horse.
Yes, Dialed In was impressive charging from far behind to win the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream in January. But in his two subsequent starts at 1 1/8 miles, he lost an allowance race and then struggled to win the Florida Derby. The race – filled with speed horses, run with fast early fractions – was a perfect set-up for him, yet Dialed In barely got past the 68-1 pacesetter, Shackleford, to prevail in slow time. Eleven horses in the Kentucky Derby field have earned higher Beyer Speed Figures in 1 1/8-mile races than Dialed In did in either of his starts at the distance. I believe that Dialed In’s best game is rallying at shorter distances and that he will even less effective at 1 1/4 miles. Throw him out.
None of the Derby entrants (except for Uncle Mo) has yet run a race good enough to stamp himself clearly as a potential Derby winner. Their speed figures are all sub-par. Under these circumstances, it makes sense to look for a colt whose form is on the upgrade and is likely to improve further on Saturday. Based on this standard, these are my top three:
1. Shackleford
2. Archarcharch
3. Nehro
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As far as Manny Pacquiao VS Sugar Shane Mosley, look for Pacman to stop Mosley in the fight that no one wants to see (I will watch it however, or at least I think I will). It might go the distance if Paxquiao takes his foot off the gas out of respect.
It will be good to watch Kelly Pavlik’s comeback though.
The Rest is Up to You…
Michael Porfirio Mason
AKA The Peoples Champ
AKA GFK, Jr.
AKA The Sly, Slick and the Wicked
AKA The Voodoo Child
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